Urbani izziv Volume 17, No. 1–2, December 2006
Celota – Institute for Development, Lukovica pri Brezovici, Slovenia
Sarajevo Canton Planning Institute, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Urban Planning Institute of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
The methodology of undertaking demographic analyses and projections in emergency conditions – example of the Sarajevo canton
The article presents methodological issues and possible solutions for execution of demographic analyses and projections in contingency circumstances. These demand a systematic approach, which isn’t limited to classical demographic analyses, but demands wider assessment. The methodology was tested in a study entitled “Demography and the system of settlements for the spatial plan of the Sarajevo Canton for the period 2003 to 2023”. In the first part evidence of demographic trends and conditions was established, while the second defined variation parameters, which are used for preparation of population projections needed for directing development. This in fact is the methodological novelty in calculating projections. These are closely linked to issues in spatial development and transformations in the demographic and social structure of the population. The applied methodology differs from the most commonly used methods for calculation of population projections. Here we see its practicality. Because of the war demographic conditions changed significantly in the entire Bosnia and Hercegovina, thus also estimates of future demographic development in the Sarajevo canton cannot be conducted without consideration of the policy of balanced development in the country. Therefore similar analyses should also be undertaken in other parts of the country, which would prove the significance of the hypothesis applied to the Sarajevo Canton.
demography, cohort survival population projections, population projections, methodology, regional development, spatial planning